Analysts at Morgan Stanley have updated their outlook for the Indian markets, and they now expect the Sensex to hit the 107,000 mark by December 2026 in a bull-case scenario, translating into an upside of 26 per cent from current levels.
India will be the world's third-largest economy by 2028 as it becomes the world's most sought-after consumer market and gains share in global output, driven by macro stability influenced policy and better infrastructure, Morgan Stanley said. From a $3.5 trillion economy in 2023, the Indian economy is projected to expand to $4.7 trillion in 2026, which will make it the fourth largest in the world behind the US, China and Germany.
Global investment bank Morgan Stanley today named P Jayendra Nayak, the former chairman and chief executive officer of Axis Bank, as its new chief executive and country head for India. Nayak, who will replace Narayan Ramachandran, is slated to join on April 5.
With India overtaking China in terms of weightage in the Morgan Stanley emerging markets IMI, Indian equities could see inflows of about $4.5 billion (Rs 37,000 crore), according to estimates. This week, Morgan Stanley announced that India has overtaken China in the MSCI Emerging Markets Investable Market Index (MSCI EM IMI). The weight of India in MSCI EM IMI stood at 22.27 per cent compared to 21.58 per cent of China.
Morgan Stanley on Thursday became the latest brokerage to question the valuations of Indian equities and downgraded them from 'overweight' (OW) to 'equalweight' (EW) and recommended taking some money off the table. "We move tactically EW on India equities after strong relative gains - we expect a structural multi-year earnings recovery, but at 24 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E) we look for some consolidation ahead of US Fed tapering, an RBI hike in February and higher energy costs," Morgan Stanley equity strategists, led by Daniel Blake and Jonathan Garner, said in a note on Asia Pacific markets. The brokerage has upgraded Indonesia to OW, while maintaining an EW stance on China and UW on Taiwan.
Report maintains its underweight call on India.
Retail investors have become a force to reckon with in the last 10 years with their ownership of Indian equities rising 800 basis points, or 8 per cent, to 23.4 per cent during this period, suggests a recent note from Morgan Stanley. This number, Morgan Stanley said, is set to rise in the next few years as Indian households are still underinvested in equities. India's demographics, policy framework, investor education and modest positive real rates, it said, will fuel the 'equity cult' in India.
Morgan Stanley on Monday raised India's growth forecast for the current financial year to 5.4 per cent from 5.1 per cent projected earlier citing better than expected GDP growth in the September quarter and stabilisation in non-agriculture growth indicators.
American brokerage Morgan Stanley on Thursday slashed its Sensex target for the next 12 months to 18,200, citing weakening macro fundamentals of the economy.
A new era of Indian equity market outperformance compared to China "appears to be dawning", according to Morgan Stanley. The firm has upgraded India to overweight in its Asia Pacific-excluding Japan (APxJ) list, making it their most preferred market not only in the region but also in the global emerging market (GEM) pack. India now holds the top position in this category, with an overweight of 75 basis points, a significant increase from nil previously.
India, along with Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, is expected to sustain growth in the medium-term in Asia region, replacing China as the key growth driver, Morgan Stanley and Nomura said in two separate reports released on Monday. While Morgan Stanley projected a 6.2 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for India in FY24, Nomura estimated the Indian economy to grow at 5.9 per cent in 2023. "Even with a slowing China, we expect GDP growth in Asia to sustainably outperform other emerging markets and the US. India and Southeast Asia are set to be the fastest-growing economies this decade.
In a bull-case scenario it sees the Sensex at 61,000 levels, while it's bear case scenario pegs the Sensex at 41,000 levels by December 2021.
Indian brokerage arm of global investment banker Morgan Stanley has sought RBI's approval to start proprietary trading under which it will be able to buy and sell securities on its own account.
The best-case scenario -- to which Morgan Stanley attaches 30 per cent probability -- pegs the S&P BSE Sensex at 41,500 levels in the next 12 months.
The Wall Street major Morgan Stanley has upgraded India to "standout overweight" citing that the relative economic and earnings growth is improving and the macro-stability setup looks sufficient to withstand the higher real rate environment. "India remains standout overweight. "We increase our overweight stance on Indian equities and as our most-preferred emerging market," the brokerage said in a note on Friday.
Stocks of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) have more headroom left despite the sharp run in the last few weeks, suggests a recent report from Morgan Stanley. Stocks of these oil refining and marketing companies (OMCs), it believes, are seeing multiples re-rate as investors reassess long-term growth prospects. "IOCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.2x, 19 per cent below +1 standard deviation (SD); BPCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.5x, near historical averages; HPCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.5x, near +1SD," Morgan Stanley said.
The bull run in the Indian equity markets is intact, said analysts at Morgan Stanley in a recent note. They expect the S&P BSE Sensex to hit 80,000 levels by December 2023 in their bull-case scenario, to which they have assigned a 30 per cent probability. From the current level, this translates into an upside of nearly 29 per cent.
India is likely to be the fastest-growing Asian economy in 2022-23, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. They expect India's gross domestic product growth to average 7 per cent during this period - the strongest among the largest economies - and contributing 28 per cent and 22 per cent to Asian and global growth, respectively. The Indian economy, they said, is set for its best run in over a decade as pent-up demand is unleashed.
Financial services company Morgan Stanley's Asia chief Stephen Roach is more bullish on Indian economy than China.
According to experts, banks have found better arbitrage opportunities in dollar terms in mature economies with mortgage and leverage rather than take equity exposure on Indian real estate.
Morgan Stanley has big plans to invest in India's real estate.
Despite headwinds, it remains "structurally bullish" on India and expects the Sensex to scale up to the 70,000-mark by December 2022; 80,000 level in a bull-case scenario and hover around the 50,000-mark as a bear-case, the brokerage house said in a report.
Domestic and external environment still remain "challenging".
It has also reduced its year-end target for the BSE benchmark Sensex by 15 per cent to 18,850.
This is the sixth consecutive markdown in the valuation of Flipkart by the US firm.
The deal underscores a growing trend of consolidation in Asia's wealth management industry.
Its first and only investment in India out of its Asia-dedicated fund has gone bad.
India's total online shopper base at 30 per cent of its internet population is low when compared with 78 per cent in China and 70-plus per cent in the US.
Morgan Stanley attributes the strength in the domestic rally to local flows.
Morgan Stanley's Asia and Global Emerging Markets Strategy Report downgraded software firms on valuation and earnings concerns.
Morgan Stanley Real Estate, the realty arm of global financial services firm Morgan Stanley, on Wednesday said it plans to invest $1 billion (Rs 4,600 crore) in next 4-5 years in India.
Morgan Stanley says favourable factors will push Sensex to 32,500 level by December.
Morgan Stanley says the Indian market's performance would depend on policy action.
By financial year 2024-25, Morgan Stanley expects per capita income to rise 125 per cent to $3,650.
India Investment Banking chairman V K Bansal spoke to Abhineet Kumar on various issues related to equity capital markets
The global investment banking major has begun the process to explore the sale of its wealth management operations in India.
Domestic markets may see the return of retail investors finally as earnings from equities have turned positive in recent months, brokerage firm Morgan Stanley said.
The CAD has been narrowing since 2012 to an estimated 1.6% of GDP in 2014
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